· Analysis updated 09:22 UTC
Poole Town vs Basingstoke Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Poole Town and 0.99 for Basingstoke Town, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Poole Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Poole Town win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poole Town home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Basingstoke Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.1%
Recent form
Poole Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bracknell Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chertsey Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 1-0 (W)
Basingstoke Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Havant & Wville · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malvern Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 1-0 Basingstoke Town (FA Trophy)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 0-2 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2026-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 2-1 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 1-0 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2025-01-18T15:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 1-0 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 3-1 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 0-1 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2023-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · Poole Town 2-4 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poole Town win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.