· Analysis updated 09:36 UTC
Popești-Leordeni vs FC Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Popești-Leordeni and 1.72 for FC Bacau, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives FC Bacau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Popești-Leordeni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Bacau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Bacau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Popești-Leordeni and 1.72 for FC Bacau, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Popești-Leordeni
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 1-1 (D)
FC Bacau
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbrăviţa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · Popești-Leordeni 0-3 FC Bacau (Cupa României)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · Popești-Leordeni 3-2 FC Bacau (Liga II)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.