Popești-Leordeni vs Metalul Buzău Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Popești-Leordeni and 1.48 for Metalul Buzău, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Popești-Leordeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Popești-Leordeni win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Popești-Leordeni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metalul Buzău away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Popești-Leordeni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Popești-Leordeni and 1.48 for Metalul Buzău, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Popești-Leordeni win49%

Draw22%

Metalul Buzău win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.2%
2–19.1%
1–26.8%
2–26.7%
1–06.3%

Recent form

Popești-Leordeni

2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 1-1 (D)

Metalul Buzău

2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	8	3	0	13	27
2	Slatina	11	8	1	2	9	25
3	Chindia Targoviste	11	8	0	3	13	24
4	Popești-Leordeni	11	7	3	1	11	24
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	6	3	2	10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	6	3	2	6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	7	0	4	3	21
8	Concordia	11	6	1	4	8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	6	0	5	1	18
12	CS Afumati	11	5	2	4	0	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Viitorul Şelimbăr	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Unirea Slobozia	11	2	2	7	-1	8
19	CS Dinamo București	11	2	1	8	-16	7
20	CSM Satu Mare	11	0	6	5	-8	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	2	0	9	-19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Popești-Leordeni win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.