· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Poprad vs Kežmarok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Poprad and 0.63 for Kežmarok, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Poprad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Poprad win
78.7% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poprad home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poprad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Poprad and 0.63 for Kežmarok, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 43%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 4–07.3%
Recent form
Poprad
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spišská Nová Ves · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stará Ľubovňa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Slávia TU Košice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
Kežmarok
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Lipany | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Poprad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Partizán Bardejov | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Spišská Nová Ves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Slávia TU Košice | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Snina | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poprad win, at 78.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.