Pors Stadion · Analysis updated 03:55 UTC
Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Pors Grenland and 2.02 for Kongsvinger, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Kongsvinger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kongsvinger win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pors Grenland home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kongsvinger away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kongsvinger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Pors Grenland and 2.02 for Kongsvinger, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
Pors Grenland
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Notodden · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjondalen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vidar · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sotra · 2-3 (L)
Kongsvinger
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stromsgodset · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kongsvinger win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.