Port FC vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Port FC and 2.50 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Beijing Guoan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Beijing Guoan win

70.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Port FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beijing Guoan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beijing Guoan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 13% / 17% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Port FC and 2.50 for Beijing Guoan, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Port FC win13%

Draw17%

Beijing Guoan win70%

Double chance 1X

30%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

0–29.4%
1–29.4%
0–37.9%
1–37.9%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Port FC

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pattani · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sukhothai FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Vissel Kobe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 2-1 (W)

Beijing Guoan

2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Beijing Guoan win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.