· Analysis updated 01:50 UTC
Port Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Port Melbourne and 2.16 for Melbourne Knights, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Melbourne Knights the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws roughly 24% of the time.
Model pick
Melbourne Knights to Win
75.9% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.3%
- 0–115.0%
- 0–311.7%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.6%
Why the model likes this
Port Melbourne home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne Knights to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 7% / 17% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Port Melbourne and 2.16 for Melbourne Knights, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Recent form
Port Melbourne
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Knights · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Manningham United Blues · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-5 (L)
Melbourne Knights
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 24 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 47 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory II | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne Srbija | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 36 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 35 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 33 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -14 | 30 |
| 10 | North Geelong Warriors | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | -18 | 28 |
| 11 | Western United II | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 20 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -38 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.