Vale Park · Analysis updated 06:39 UTC
Port Vale vs Chesterfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.30 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Chesterfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Port Vale home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chesterfield away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
Port Vale
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
Chesterfield
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs York · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City U21 · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-1 Chesterfield (EFL Trophy)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-1 Chesterfield (League Two)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield (League Two)
- 2021-07-31T00:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 2-1 Chesterfield (League Two)
- 2017-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 0-2 Chesterfield (League Two)
- 2017-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 0-1 Chesterfield (League One)
- 2016-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield (League One)
- 2016-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 2-4 Chesterfield (League One)
- 2015-11-21T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 3-2 Chesterfield (League One)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Barnet | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Crewe | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 18 |
| 6 | York | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 7 | Gillingham | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Chesterfield | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Exeter City | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Accrington ST | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Newport County | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Rochdale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Swindon Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 17 | Grimsby | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Colchester | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 21 | Oldham | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 23 | Northampton | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.