Vale Park · Referee B. Toner · Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Port Vale vs Crewe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.03 for Crewe, a combined total of 1.87. That distribution gives Crewe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Port Vale home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crewe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 0–015.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Port Vale
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
Crewe
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackpool · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa U21 · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-29T12:30:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Crewe (League Two)
- 2024-11-25T20:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-1 Crewe (League Two)
- 2023-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Crewe (EFL Trophy)
- 2023-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · Port Vale 0-0 Crewe (League Cup)
- 2019-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Crewe (League Two)
- 2019-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Crewe (League Two)
- 2018-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Crewe (League Two)
- 2018-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 2-2 Crewe (League Two)
- 2017-11-07T19:45:00.000Z · Port Vale 4-2 Crewe (EFL Trophy)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 21 |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | York | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.