Port Vale vs Exeter City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.80 for Exeter City, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Port Vale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Port Vale home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Exeter City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Port Vale win32%

Draw35%

Exeter City win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals48%

Over 2.5 goals22%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–020.2%
0–116.2%
1–016.2%
1–112.9%
0–26.5%

Recent form

Port Vale

2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)

Exeter City

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Crewe · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Colchester · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Exeter City (League Two)
2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-3 Exeter City (League One)
2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 2-0 Exeter City (League One)
2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 2-4 Exeter City (League One)
2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Exeter City (League One)
2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Exeter City (League One)
2022-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 2-3 Exeter City (FA Cup)
2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 0-4 Exeter City (League One)
2022-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Port Vale 1-0 Exeter City (League Two)
2022-03-22T19:45:00.000Z · Port Vale 0-0 Exeter City (League Two)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	7	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	8	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	0	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	0	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	9	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	6	19
8	Exeter City	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Accrington ST	13	4	6	3	6	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	-4	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	3	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	0	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	0	16
14	Swindon Town	13	4	4	5	-3	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	-4	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	0	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	-7	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	-2	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	0	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	-4	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	-5	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	-6	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	-6	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.