Port Vale vs Grimsby Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.10 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Grimsby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Port Vale home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Grimsby away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grimsby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Port Vale and 1.10 for Grimsby, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Port Vale win31%

Draw30%

Grimsby win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–114.2%
1–113.5%
0–012.9%
1–012.2%
0–27.8%

Recent form

Port Vale

2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)

Grimsby

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Port Vale · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shrewsbury · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Notts County · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.