Shamrock Park · Analysis updated 06:48 UTC
Portadown vs Ballymena United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Portadown and 1.47 for Ballymena United, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Ballymena United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ballymena United win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portadown home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ballymena United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ballymena United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Portadown and 1.47 for Ballymena United, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.4%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Portadown
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Limavady United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 0-2 (L)
Ballymena United
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ballymena United win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.