Shamrock Park · Referee M. McKenna · Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Portadown vs Larne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.45 expected goals for Portadown and 1.55 for Larne, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Larne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Larne win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
0.45 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portadown home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Larne away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.0%
- 0–216.3%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–38.4%
Recent form
Portadown
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Limavady United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 0-2 (L)
Larne
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Portadown 0-2 Larne (Premiership)
- 2026-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Portadown 2-1 Larne (Premiership)
- 2025-11-07T19:45:00.000Z · Portadown 0-3 Larne (Premiership)
- 2025-08-22T18:45:00.000Z · Portadown 0-4 Larne (Premiership)
- 2025-02-15T17:30:00.000Z · Portadown 2-0 Larne (Premiership)
- 2025-02-01T17:30:00.000Z · Portadown 1-1 Larne (Premiership)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Portadown 2-1 Larne (Premiership)
- 2023-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Portadown 0-2 Larne (Premiership)
- 2022-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Portadown 0-5 Larne (Premiership)
- 2022-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Portadown 0-1 Larne (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Linfield | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Larne | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Cliftonville FC | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Portadown | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Bangor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Larne win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.