· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Portel vs Aljustrelense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Portel and 0.97 for Aljustrelense, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Portel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portel win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aljustrelense away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Portel and 0.97 for Aljustrelense, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.3%
Recent form
Portel
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olhanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aljustrelense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Messejanense · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcochetense · 2-2 (D)
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Portel 1-1 Aljustrelense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lajense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portel win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.