Campo Major David Neto 2 · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Portimonense B vs Moncarapachense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Portimonense B and 1.00 for Moncarapachense, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Moncarapachense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.1% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portimonense B home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moncarapachense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moncarapachense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 25% / 34% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Portimonense B and 1.00 for Moncarapachense, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 0–118.3%
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Portimonense B
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira · 0-0 (D)
Moncarapachense
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense B · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Lajense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.