· Analysis updated 22:13 UTC
Portimonense vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Portimonense and 0.95 for Felgueiras 1932, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Felgueiras 1932 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portimonense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Felgueiras 1932 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Felgueiras 1932 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 29% / 33% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Portimonense and 0.95 for Felgueiras 1932, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 0–116.5%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Portimonense
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 1-1 (D)
Felgueiras 1932
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naval 1893 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | AVS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Tondela | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.