Estádio Municipal de Portimão · Referee Vasilica Iancu, Portugal · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Portimonense vs Leixoes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.38 for Leixoes, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Leixoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portimonense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leixoes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leixoes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Portimonense and 1.38 for Leixoes, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.28 | 40.3% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 67.0% | 68.2% | 1.47 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.93 | 47.3% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.92 | 31.5% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 46.9% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.77 | 53.1% | 53.1% | 1.88 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.0% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 58.9% | 58.3% | 1.72 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 52.7% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.50 | 26.8% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.3% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Portimonense
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 1-1 (D)
Leixoes
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.