· Analysis updated 16:14 UTC
Portimonense vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.83 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Nottingham Forest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nottingham Forest win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portimonense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nottingham Forest away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nottingham Forest to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 12% / 22% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Portimonense and 1.83 for Nottingham Forest, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.1%
- 0–214.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–39.0%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Portimonense
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 1-1 (D)
Nottingham Forest
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · Portimonense 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nottingham Forest win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.