Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.73 for Charlotte Independence, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Charlotte Independence the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Portland Hearts of Pine home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Charlotte Independence away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charlotte Independence to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.73 for Charlotte Independence, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Portland Hearts of Pine win35%

Draw23%

Charlotte Independence win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–28.7%
2–17.8%
2–26.8%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Portland Hearts of Pine

2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte Independence · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Forward Madison · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Boise · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Spokane Velocity · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarasota Paradise · 1-4 (L)

Charlotte Independence

2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Hearts of Pine · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Greenville Triumph · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs NY Cosmos · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Sarasota Paradise · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fort Wayne · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL League One table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	32	20	6	6	28	66
2	Union Omaha	32	19	5	8	20	62
3	Boise	32	17	7	8	10	58
4	Forward Madison	32	16	8	8	24	56
5	Spokane Velocity	32	16	6	10	6	54
6	One Knoxville	32	15	9	8	16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	32	14	5	13	6	47
8	Naples	32	14	4	14	-7	46
9	Fort Wayne	32	12	9	11	5	45
10	Westchester SC	32	11	7	14	4	40
11	Sarasota Paradise	32	11	7	14	-2	40
12	Corpus Christi	32	9	10	13	-15	37
13	Alta	32	8	10	14	-8	34
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	32	8	10	14	-10	34
15	Greenville Triumph	32	8	6	18	-23	30
16	NY Cosmos	32	7	6	19	-26	27
17	Richmond Kickers	32	7	5	20	-28	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.