Providence Park · Referee I. Elfath · Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Portland Timbers and 1.53 for Atlanta United FC, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Portland Timbers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portland Timbers win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portland Timbers home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlanta United FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Portland Timbers
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 2-2 (D)
Atlanta United FC
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-03-18T23:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 1-5 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-09-04T21:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 2-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2019-08-19T02:00:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 0-2 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2018-12-09T01:00:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 0-2 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2018-06-24T20:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 1-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2017-05-14T20:00:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 1-1 Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portland Timbers win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.