USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 2002:30

3 – 1

Thursday, 20 August 2026

Providence Park · Referee Rubiel Vazquez, USA · Analysis updated 14:55 UTC

Portland Timbers vs San Diego Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Portland Timbers and 1.50 for San Diego, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Portland Timbers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Portland Timbers win

49.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Portland Timbers home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Portland Timbers win49%

Draw22%

San Diego win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.1%
2–19.1%
1–26.8%
2–26.8%
1–06.1%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.83	51.6%	53.9%	1.86	+2.3
Match result	Away	3.30	28.2%	29.2%	3.42	+1.0
Both teams to score	No	2.88	32.1%	33.0%	3.03	+0.9
Goals	Under 2.5	3.00	31.5%	32.3%	3.10	+0.8
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.85	50.1%	50.9%	1.96	+0.8
Match result	Home	1.90	49.0%	49.1%	2.04	+0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.18	78.6%	78.3%	1.28	-0.3
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.30	71.3%	70.8%	1.41	-0.5
Goals	Over 2.5	1.38	68.5%	67.7%	1.48	-0.8
Both teams to score	Yes	1.36	67.9%	67.0%	1.49	-0.9
Match result	Draw	4.10	22.7%	21.7%	4.61	-1.0
Goals	Over 3.5	1.95	48.4%	46.1%	2.17	-2.3

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Portland Timbers

2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 2-2 (D)

San Diego

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York Red Bulls · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-20T02:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2026-04-26T01:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 2-1 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2025-11-10T02:00:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 0-4 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2025-11-02T01:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 2-2 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-27T01:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 1-2 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19T01:00:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 0-4 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-24T02:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 0-0 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
2025-02-12T21:30:00.000Z · Portland Timbers 3-0 San Diego (Friendlies Clubs)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	-3	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	-33	22
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	13	10	5	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	13	7	8	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	-11	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	7	6	15	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	-21	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Portland Timbers win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.