· Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
Portmany vs Mercadal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Portmany and 0.93 for Mercadal, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Mercadal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portmany home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mercadal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 0–114.9%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Portmany
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotlet Molinar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Collerense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Son Cladera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 3-1 (W)
Mercadal
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Formentera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-18T15:00:00.000Z · Portmany 0-0 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Portmany 0-2 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2025-02-22T11:30:00.000Z · Portmany 0-0 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2024-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Portmany 0-0 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2024-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · Portmany 1-2 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2023-10-29T11:00:00.000Z · Portmany 0-1 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2023-04-02T09:30:00.000Z · Portmany 2-0 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2022-12-03T15:00:00.000Z · Portmany 1-6 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2022-03-06T11:30:00.000Z · Portmany 1-0 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2021-11-06T11:00:00.000Z · Portmany 2-1 Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.