· Referee A. Majors · Analysis updated 15:17 UTC
Portmore United vs Mount Pleasant Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Portmore United and 0.92 for Mount Pleasant Academy, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Portmore United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portmore United win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portmore United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portmore United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Portmore United and 0.92 for Mount Pleasant Academy, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Portmore United
- 2026-08-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-18T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 2-0 (W)
Mount Pleasant Academy
- 2026-08-18T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Robin Hood · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth Wales · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs All Saints United · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Violette AC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Portmore United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Sando | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Salcedo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Cibao | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Defence Force | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Cavalier | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Broki | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portmore United win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.