· Analysis updated 00:49 UTC
Porto Football U20 vs Mauá U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Porto Football U20 and 0.91 for Mauá U20, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Mauá U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.2% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto Football U20 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mauá U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 29% / 34% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Porto Football U20 and 0.91 for Mauá U20, a combined 1.68 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.7%
- 0–117.0%
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Porto Football U20
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ituano U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mauá U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
Mauá U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.