· Analysis updated 18:57 UTC
Porto Football U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Porto Football U20 and 1.44 for Palmeiras U20, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras U20 win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto Football U20 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Porto Football U20 and 1.44 for Palmeiras U20, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
Porto Football U20
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ituano U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mauá U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
Palmeiras U20
- 2026-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · Porto Football U20 0-1 Palmeiras U20 (Paulista - U20)
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras U20 win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.