· Analysis updated 01:33 UTC
Porto U19 vs Famalicão U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Porto U19 and 1.00 for Famalicão U19, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Porto U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Porto U19 win
67.4% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto U19 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Famalicão U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Porto U19
- 2026-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense U19 · 1-0 (W)
Famalicão U19
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gil Vicente U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave U19 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 3-2 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 3-2 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 3-2 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2025-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 5-1 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 1-0 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-08-18T10:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 1-1 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-05-05T10:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 2-2 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 0-1 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2024-01-13T11:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 0-2 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2023-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · Porto U19 1-3 Famalicão U19 (Júniores U19)
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Porto U19 win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.