· Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
Porto U19 vs Gil Vicente U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Porto U19 and 0.70 for Gil Vicente U19, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Porto U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Porto U19 win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto U19 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gil Vicente U19 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Porto U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 31% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Porto U19 and 0.70 for Gil Vicente U19, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–015.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–010.6%
Recent form
Porto U19
- 2026-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense U19 · 1-0 (W)
Gil Vicente U19
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Feirense U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu U19 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto U19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 1 | Sporting CP U19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Benfica U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 | Sporting Braga U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Oriental U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 4 | Santa Clara U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Feirense U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Mafra U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 6 | Rio Ave U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Torreense U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Famalicão U19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa Pia U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Alverca U19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 10 | União Leiria U19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Porto U19 win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.