Estadio Kleber Andrade · Analysis updated 07:55 UTC
Porto Vitória vs Rio Branco-VN Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Porto Vitória and 0.80 for Rio Branco-VN, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Porto Vitória the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Porto Vitória win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto Vitória home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Branco-VN away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Porto Vitória to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 27% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Porto Vitória and 0.80 for Rio Branco-VN, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Porto Vitória
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Brasil ES · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Talhada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 3-0 (W)
Rio Branco-VN
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto Vitória · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Vitória · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Brasil ES · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Porto Vitória win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.