Estadio Kleber Andrade · Analysis updated 03:37 UTC
Porto Vitória vs Sport Brasil ES Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Porto Vitória and 0.52 for Sport Brasil ES, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Porto Vitória the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Porto Vitória win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto Vitória home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sport Brasil ES away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Porto Vitória to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 17% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Porto Vitória and 0.52 for Sport Brasil ES, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.9%
- 1–014.8%
- 3–011.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Porto Vitória
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Brasil ES · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Talhada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 3-0 (W)
Sport Brasil ES
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela do Norte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rive · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pinheiros · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela do Norte · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · Porto Vitória 3-0 Sport Brasil ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2025-04-23T18:00:00.000Z · Porto Vitória 6-0 Sport Brasil ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2024-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · Porto Vitória 4-2 Sport Brasil ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Porto Vitória win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.