Estadio Kleber Andrade · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Porto Vitória vs Tocantinópolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Porto Vitória and 0.86 for Tocantinópolis, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Porto Vitória the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Porto Vitória win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Porto Vitória home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tocantinópolis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Porto Vitória to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 28% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Porto Vitória and 0.86 for Tocantinópolis, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Porto Vitória
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Brasil ES · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Talhada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 3-0 (W)
Tocantinópolis
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Oratório · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Águia de Marabá · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trem · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperatriz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuna Luso · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Centro-Oeste table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gama | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Rio Branco ES | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Anápolis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Vila Nova | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Operario Ferroviario | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Araguaína | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Goianiense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Porto Vitória | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Capital Brasilia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Tocantinópolis | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Primavera MG | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Porto Vitória win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.