Fratton Park · Analysis updated 10:04 UTC
Portsmouth vs Bolton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.50 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Portsmouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portsmouth home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portsmouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Portsmouth and 1.50 for Bolton, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
Bolton
- 2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.