Fratton Park · Referee Benjamin Speedie, England · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Portsmouth vs Cardiff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.17 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Portsmouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portsmouth home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cardiff away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 49.3% vs market 39.1%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 39.1% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +10.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.8% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.9% | 3.72 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.4% | 67.3% | 1.49 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.1% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.3% | 32.7% | 3.06 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.9% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 0-2 (L)
Cardiff
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-0 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2025-02-11T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-1 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2024-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-2 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2022-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 3-0 Cardiff (League Cup)
- 2017-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-2 Cardiff (League Cup)
- 2012-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-3 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2011-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-1 Cardiff (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.