Westleigh Park · Analysis updated 12:51 UTC
Portsmouth W vs Bristol City W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Portsmouth W and 1.53 for Bristol City W, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Bristol City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portsmouth W home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bristol City W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bristol City W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Portsmouth W and 1.53 for Bristol City W, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Portsmouth W
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 2-2 (D)
Bristol City W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolverhampton W · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sunderland W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Southampton W | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Watford W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.