· Referee M. Vanderstichel · Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Portugal U20 vs Canada U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Portugal U20 and 0.85 for Canada U20, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Portugal U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portugal U20 win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portugal U20 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Canada U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portugal U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Portugal U20 and 0.85 for Canada U20, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Portugal U20
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Poland U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U23 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Canada U20 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-06-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela U20 · 3-1 (W)
Canada U20
- 2026-08-08T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-30T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Honduras U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Panama U20 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tournoi Maurice Revello table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Tunisia U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Congo DR U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Japan U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | China PR U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | Canada U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Colombia U19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Venezuela U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portugal U20 win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.