· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Portugal U20 W vs Brazil U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Portugal U20 W and 1.41 for Brazil U20 W, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Brazil U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portugal U20 W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brazil U20 W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brazil U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Portugal U20 W and 1.41 for Brazil U20 W, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Portugal U20 W
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Spain U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Rica U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia U20 W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 W · 1-1 (D)
Brazil U20 W
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania U20 W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Finland U23 W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs United States U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T23:30:00.000Z · A vs United States U20 W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.