· Referee M. Molinaro · Analysis updated 15:05 UTC
Portugal W vs Slovakia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.52 expected goals for Portugal W and 0.93 for Slovakia W, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Portugal W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portugal W win
84.5% probability
Expected goals
3.52 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portugal W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portugal W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.52 goals for Portugal W and 0.93 for Slovakia W, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 58%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.5%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–07.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 4–16.9%
Recent form
Portugal W
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern Ireland W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Finland W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Latvia W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovakia W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Latvia W · 3-0 (W)
Slovakia W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portugal W win, at 84.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.