· Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Portugalete vs Compostela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Portugalete and 0.96 for Compostela, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Portugalete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portugalete home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Compostela away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portugalete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Portugalete and 0.96 for Compostela, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Portugalete
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Amorebieta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Coruxo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 0-0 (D)
Compostela
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantiños | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Sestao River | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Compostela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Amorebieta | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ourense CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Gernika | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Arosa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Llanera | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlético Astorga | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Marino de Luanco | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.