Estadio La Florida · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Portugalete vs Durango Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Portugalete and 0.80 for Durango, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Portugalete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portugalete win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portugalete home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Durango away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
Portugalete
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Amorebieta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Coruxo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 0-0 (D)
Durango
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-01T18:00:00.000Z · Portugalete 1-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-11-22T16:00:00.000Z · Portugalete 1-1 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-03-29T17:30:00.000Z · Portugalete 1-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2024-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · Portugalete 2-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2024-04-27T16:30:00.000Z · Portugalete 5-1 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2023-12-17T16:00:00.000Z · Portugalete 2-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2023-02-05T10:30:00.000Z · Portugalete 1-1 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2022-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · Portugalete 1-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2022-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · Portugalete 0-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2021-12-19T10:30:00.000Z · Portugalete 1-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad III | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés III | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Pasaia KE | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Touring | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Sodupe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lagun Onak | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Erandio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Santurtzi | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Eibar III | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portugalete win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.