Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Portuguesa FC and 0.89 for Estudiantes de Merida FC, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Portuguesa FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portuguesa FC win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes de Merida FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portuguesa FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Portuguesa FC and 0.89 for Estudiantes de Merida FC, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.3%
Recent form
Portuguesa FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portuguesa FC win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.