· Analysis updated 07:33 UTC
Portuguesa U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Portuguesa U20 and 0.88 for Sertãozinho U20, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Portuguesa U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portuguesa U20 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sertãozinho U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portuguesa U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 31% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Portuguesa U20 and 0.88 for Sertãozinho U20, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Portuguesa U20
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertãozinho U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs América-SP U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol U20 · 0-0 (D)
Sertãozinho U20
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.