Porz vs Frechen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Porz and 1.96 for Frechen, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Frechen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Frechen win

47.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Porz home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Frechen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Porz win31%

Draw22%

Frechen win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–28.9%
2–17.0%
2–26.9%
0–15.9%

Recent form

Porz

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Düren Merzenich · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hennef 05 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wegberg-Beeck · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 1-4 (L)

Frechen

2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 5-3 (W)
2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Hürth · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Vichttal · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindenthal-Hohenlind · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · Porz 1-4 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2025-12-07T14:30:00.000Z · Porz 2-3 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2025-04-13T13:00:00.000Z · Porz 1-0 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2024-09-29T13:15:00.000Z · Porz 0-1 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2023-12-10T14:15:00.000Z · Porz 0-6 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
2023-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · Porz 0-1 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wegberg-Beeck	9	7	1	1	12	22
2	SSV Merten	9	6	1	2	18	19
3	Eintracht Hohkeppel	9	5	2	2	8	17
4	Frechen	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Düren Merzenich	9	5	1	3	2	16
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Fortuna Köln II	8	4	1	3	4	13
8	VfL Vichttal	9	3	3	3	7	12
9	Bornheim	9	4	0	5	0	12
10	Siegburger SV	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Hürth	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Chlodwig Zulpich	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Hennef 05	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	TuS BW Königsdorf	8	2	0	6	-23	6
15	Porz	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Frechen win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.