· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Poseidon Nea Michaniona vs Mpam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Poseidon Nea Michaniona and 1.18 for Mpam, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Poseidon Nea Michaniona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Poseidon Nea Michaniona win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poseidon Nea Michaniona home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poseidon Nea Michaniona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Poseidon Nea Michaniona and 1.18 for Mpam, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Poseidon Nea Michaniona
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Akrites Sykeon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAO Kristoni · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Doxa Dramas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aetos Orfani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Therm. · 1-2 (L)
Mpam
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panedessaikos · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Finikas Polichnis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Mpam | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Akrites Sykeon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Agiou Nikolaou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Panedessaikos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Polykastrou | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poseidon Nea Michaniona win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.