· Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
Posta Rangers FC vs Sofapaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Posta Rangers FC and 0.92 for Sofapaka, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Posta Rangers FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Posta Rangers FC home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sofapaka away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Posta Rangers FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 32% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Posta Rangers FC and 0.92 for Sofapaka, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.7%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Posta Rangers FC
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Murang'a SEAL · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulinzi Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 1-0 (W)
Sofapaka
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Posta Rangers FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mathare United · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.