· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Posušje vs Tomislav Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Posušje and 0.99 for Tomislav, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Posušje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Posušje win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Posušje home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tomislav away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Posušje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Posušje and 0.99 for Tomislav, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Posušje
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs GOŠK Gabela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Hadžići · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
Tomislav
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Posušje win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.