Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Potenza vs Bari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Potenza and 1.18 for Bari, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Potenza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Potenza win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Potenza home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bari away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Potenza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Potenza and 1.18 for Bari, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Potenza
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Foggia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Picerno · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cavese · 4-2 (W)
Bari
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Team Altamura · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Potenza win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.