Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Potenza vs Catania Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Potenza and 1.43 for Catania, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Potenza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Potenza win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Potenza home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Catania away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Potenza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Potenza and 1.43 for Catania, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Potenza
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cavese · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 1-0 (W)
Catania
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Casertana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Picerno · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Scafatese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | AZ Picerno | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Inter U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Savoia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Potenza win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.