Estadio Do Manduzao · Analysis updated 13:59 UTC
Pouso Alegre vs Portuguesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Pouso Alegre and 1.52 for Portuguesa, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Portuguesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portuguesa win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portuguesa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portuguesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 15% / 26% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Pouso Alegre and 1.52 for Portuguesa, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.3%
- 0–213.9%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Uberlandia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Marcílio Dias · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portuguesa win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.