· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Pozuelo Alarcón vs Torrejón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Pozuelo Alarcón and 1.50 for Torrejón, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Pozuelo Alarcón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pozuelo Alarcón home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torrejón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Pozuelo Alarcón
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs RC Alcobendas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Galapagar · 1-1 (D)
Torrejón
- 2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Rozas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Parla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcón II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T11:00:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 0-1 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2025-09-28T09:30:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 3-1 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2024-03-28T11:00:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 0-1 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2023-11-12T10:30:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 0-0 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2023-03-12T11:00:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 2-1 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2022-11-06T10:30:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 1-1 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2022-01-30T11:00:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 1-4 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-09-26T09:30:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 1-0 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-02-14T10:30:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 1-1 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2020-11-15T11:00:00.000Z · Pozuelo Alarcón 1-0 Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardó | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Cala Pozuelo | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Galapagar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Trival Valderas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Móstoles | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Fuenlabrada | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Unión Adarve | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | RC Alcobendas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Leganés II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Torrejón | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Parla Escuela | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Alcobendas Sport | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Aranjuez | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Villanueva Pardillo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | SS Reyes II | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.