Prachuap Khiri Khan Province Stadium · Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
Prachuap vs Bangkok United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Prachuap the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prachuap win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prachuap home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bangkok United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prachuap to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Bangkok United, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Prachuap
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sukhothai FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-0 (W)
Bangkok United
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lamphun Warrior · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prachuap win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.