Sam Ao Stadium · Referee T. Somsingha · Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.87 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Prachuap the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prachuap win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prachuap home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lamphun Warrior away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prachuap to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Prachuap and 0.87 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.0%
Recent form
Prachuap
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sukhothai FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-0 (W)
Lamphun Warrior
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rasi Salai United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prachuap win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.